Is it time to bury the 'Maai Baap'?

The Govt. or better Sarkar, is the Maai Baap – or loosely translated, the all-important decider, the Parent of our fate or destinies.

Extend the logic to the financial markets – you have the concept of The Sovereign with its mandate to issue and print currency and hence The God of zero default risk!

Expectedly, the popularity of Govt. administered savings schemes such as EPF, PPF, LIC, PO savings etc. is very high. However, the recent experience (last seven years) in terms of high overall inflation, riding on a particularly high component of food prices inflation – a rare occurrence in recent memory makes it imperative to ask some pointed questions -

Population statistics indicate the increase in average life expectancy. What does the common saver do to protect himself from exhausting his retirement corpus?

Since the Govt. happens to be one of the most inefficient users of capital, if the common saver continues to park a significant portion of his life-savings with the Govt., should he not take some of the blame for the prevailing high inflation?

When you park your savings in Banks and Insurance companies, a significant part of your money finds its way to the Govt. by way of investments in Govt. securities. The quantum is mostly way above the stipulated norm. The return on these Govt. securities, in the recent past has more often been lesser than the rate of inflation. Does this bother you?

At home, will a parent give more pocket money to an errant child known to squander his money on idle pursuits? If your answer is a firm no, why will you be indulging an errant Govt.? Is it time, instead of letting the Sarkar be the Maai Baap, the citizens or the common saver assumes the role of the strict parent and put its savings in instruments based on merit?

Now, let us see what could be some of the possible consequences if the common person’s savings allocation is merit-based –

Govt. is forced to cut down on non-essential expenditure

Govt. is forced to sell off assets it is not able to operate profitably – may include PSUs and land and real estate

Govt. is forced to pay market linked returns on borrowings

Capital availability to businesses and industry increases

Lending by Bankers and Investments by Insurers is forced to seek the best risk-reward equation

Now let us take stock of what happened recently after a change in the Finance Ministry. A Minister known to be ‘market-friendly’ was back in his old office in the North block. True to market expectations, he kicked off in spectacular style, making a slew of announcements.

Quiz time again –

Did the FM make any announcements signalling measures to arrest the decline in GDP growth?

Did the FM say anything about tackling the possibility of drought and hence the threat to further spiralling of food prices?

Did he say anything about introducing inflation-indexed Govt. bonds for the savers to improve the real returns on investments?

If you know the answers, you will also know that the FM is playing to the galleries by making announcements to improve investor-sentiment. This is to attract more FII investment and hence may lead to a strong rally in markets.

Is this the primary role of the Finance Minister?

Don’t we know the risks that lie behind such moves from the past? The FM might be doing this to help his party win the next general elections. However, what will be the consequences of these moves on the economy and our personal finances beyond the short-term?

We believe that the time has now come for the common saver to become more aware of the long term risks to his financial safety and security and make well-advised moves vis-a-vis his savings, because the road to ‘zero risk’ may be fraught with danger!

In our next post, we will talk about what could be some of the options that an investor may consider to improve his portfolio’s overall risk-reward equation.